Re: [pbmserv] yacht strategy?

[Douglas Zander <dzander@solaria.sol.net>]

Some people have already responded to me.  I think one tool of course
would be to remember your odds of rolling dice. 
one dice: odds of rolling your desired number is 1 in 6
two dice: odds of rolling your desired two numbers is...
  if the desired numbers are the same - 1 in 36
  if the desired numbers are different - 2 in 36 or 1 in 18
etc...

so, for example is you rolled 1 2 3 3 6  and you have one roll left
do you go for a large straight or try to build up your threes?
(assuming you can go for either a large straight or threes)
if you reroll 126 you have a 7 in 216 (roughly 1 in 30 chance) of rolling
at least one more three.  if you reroll 36 you have 2 in 36 (1 in 18)
chance of getting a large straight.  so it would be better to go for
the large straight.  (that sounds counter-intuitive)  

I believe that a good foundation in probability theory will help a player
win at Yacht.  Are there other strategies or tools?  

-- 
 Douglas Zander