[werewolf] hartwell's proposal for a similar game

[Mark Hartwell <hartwell@copper.net>]

hartwell's proposal for a similar game  

I would like a "LOST prediction game" but the concept could be used for 
Survivor, American Idol, the Olympics or any sports game.  It could also 
be used for political races, whatever people are interested where the 
outcome is unknown and interesting to others.

My concept is this:

1) a game is formed.   it has a "concept" or a theme.  (similar to 
werewolf)  say "Survivor episode 13.02"  (or even survivor SEASON 13)

2) players join the game (perhaps games start, then are closed to new 
players, perhaps new players can enter at any time, i dunno.)

3) players submit "predictions"  they should be true / false statements 
that cover a single item worded so that everyone will agree on the 
outcome after watching the episode in question.  For instance "A female 
will be voted off the island."  the statements should be positive, not 
negative.  for instance "No women will be voted off in episode 13.02" is 
bad, "Only men will be voted off in episode 13.02" would be the same 
thing, worded positively.   each prediction is assigned a number.

perhaps the referee (or someone with the approval password for the game) 
will approve the questions, perhaps they go through un-edited.  (an option?)

4) players are assigned 1000 points (ala ToW)

5) players vote for or against the predictions.  (option, bids are open 
to see revealed with who voted how or perhaps only the totals for and 
against are given)  a player bids a positive number of his points if he 
agrees with the prediction and a negative number if he disagrees.  
theoretically, the higher your bid, the more you agree.  there are no 
limits other than each players available totals (option: bid limits are 
defined  for instance, in a LOST themed game, it might be fun to only 
allow 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 as bids. )

6) after the episode airs (or the super bowl is over or the election 
results are in) referees tick off each question as true or false.

7) scoring:  all points bid go into the prize pool (zero sum game) i 
have a couple ideas to modify this but they can wait.  the total points 
bid correctly are calculated, as are the total bid incorrectly.  a 
"payoff:" is calculated payoff is (total points bid in the game) / 
(total points bid correctly)  then, the players who bid correctly are 
awarded those points back to their pools  if 3000 total points were bid 
in a game and 1000 of them were correct, then the pay ratio is 3.  If 
you bid 10 points to "santa will be on the boat" and santa WAS, then you 
get 30 points. (for that question)

8) then the game should be able to continue (for a whole season)  
because it will take 8 months to play, players should be able to join at 
any time, given some sort of penalty for joining late.  i dunno.  
referees should be able to reset all or just some of the questions.  
some questions might make sense to go on and on.  some might need to be 
retired.

I think it would be fun.  Anyone feel like coding it?  (Dzander MIGHT 
have a head-start as we are playing a hand cranked LOST last episode 
game ... waiting for some europeans to catch up. (I'M looking at YOU 
kenneth!

thanks for your consideration

Hartwell