Re: [HoE] New hex rules

[Allan Seyberth <darious@darious.com>]

>-------------
>I am interested in seeing how this will work in gameplay.  I don't think
>that Hucksters will be the most powerful character type out there though. 
>Any Psycher or Doomsayer worth his salt is going to have a 5d12 Blastin' or
>whatever skill and doesn't have to worry about drawing cards.  I don't know
>what the actual odds are but I wonder just how noticable a difference it is
>going to be with a couple of extra cards being able to be drawn.  Most hex
>effects aren't all that great even when you get a Pair.

Ask and you shall receive.....

d8: 					3dice	4dice	5dice
	chance of going bust:		2.8%	0.8%	1.7% 
	Hitting a TN of 5			87.5%	93.7%	96.8%
	Hitting a TN of 10 (one raise)	29.3%	37.0%	43.9%
	Hitting a TN of 15 (two raises)	9.0%	11.9%	14.6%
	Average value			8.20	9.08	9.88 

d10: 					3	4	5
	chance of going bust:		2.8%	0.5%	0.9% 
	Hitting a TN of 5			93.6%	97.4%	98.9%
	Hitting a TN of 10 (one raise)	27.0%	34.3%	40.9%
	Hitting a TN of 15 (two raises)	16.9%	21.9%	26.6%
	Average value			9.62	10.77	11.51 


d12: 					3	4	5
	chance of going bust:		2.8%	0.8%	.5% 
	Hitting a TN of 5			96.2%	98.7%	99.5%
	Hitting a TN of 10 (one raise)	57.8%	68.3%	76.2%
	Hitting a TN of 15 (two raises)	19.4%	25.0%	30.2%
	Average value			11.20	12.32	13.01 

(Note - Bust odds are separate from both the TN odds and the average value.
 Both the TN odds and ave. value don't calculate the effect of going bust,
which would lower the actual values.  TN odds may be low by 1/10th of a
percent.... standard rules and restrictions apply, game pieces may be
redeemed with any participating fear monger).

That's just the first test - which is pretty easy.  The second test comes
from the pull of the cards.

5 card pull:
	Nothing:  25.29%
	Ace: 15.90%
	Pair:  40.10%
	Two Pair:  3.91%
	Three of a kind:  4.76%
	Better:  1.48%
	Black Joker:  8.56%
	Most common hand:  Low pair (not jacks or better)
	Second most common hand:  Failure/nothing.
	
6 card pull:
	Nothing:  13.62%
	Ace:  11.99%
	Pair:  41.40%
	Two Pair:  9.81%
	Three of a kind:  6.95%
	Better:  6.27%
	Black Joker: 10.06%
	Most common hand:  Low pair (not jacks or better)
	Second most common hand:  High pair (jacks or better)

7 card pull:
	Nothing:  5.84%
	Ace: 7.31%
	Pair: 34.80%
	Two Pair:  17.75%
	Three of a kind:  7.58%
	Better:  12.22%
	Black Joker: 11.50%
	Most common hand:  Low pair (not jacks or better)
	Second most common hand:  Two pair.

(All odds figured with red joker considered, and a black joker is a failure)

The first trend of note:  Higher die type and more dice mean better results.

Second trend of note:  The odds of getting more successes are not on par
with the benefit you get with a card pull.
While the odds of getting a TN 5 and a TN 15 drops by 70-80%, the gain is
only roughly about 45%.   (20% less likely to pull nothing, 15% higher
chance at two pair, 10% higher at 3 of a kind or better)
-------------------
Allan Seyberth
darious@darious.com

Why did the chicken cross the road?

Emporer Palpatine:  
Foolish chicken!  Only now, at the end, do you see the head-lights!