Re: [pbmserv] yacht strategy?

[Eric Shultz <swift_4@yahoo.com>]

Thank you, Andrew, for explaining why Douglas keeps
losing.  If we were playing Werewolf, we would have
lynched him by now.

I go on a "Use the Force" approach, but there's some
strategy.

Trying to get one die to come up with the number you
want makes getting a large straight difficult.  Wait
until you're looking for an outside number.  For
example:  If you've got 12 and 45, you've only got a 1
in 6 chance each roll to get the 3.  If you've got
2345, you've doubled your chances to 1 in 3 each roll.

Don't underestimate the 35 points for filling the top
or overestimate the 25 points for a full house.  

Don't try for a full house early.  If you get a couple
of pairs, pick one and roll the rest.  A full house
will usually come around.  

If you get a bad break early in the game, don't reach
for Chance right away.  Take whatever on the 1s.  A
zero on the 1s is the easiest points to make up.  A
zero in the ones and you've cost yourself 3 or 4
points.  You put a 10 in chance and you've cost
yourself about 10 points.

Lastly, roll Yacht a lot.  That usually helps.

Eric
--- Andrew Schepler <schepler@msu.edu> wrote:
> On Fri, Dec 26, 2003 at 03:09:16PM -0600, Douglas
> Zander wrote:
> > if you reroll 126 you have a 7 in 216 (roughly 1
> in 30 chance) of rolling
> > at least one more three. 
> 
> Er, no.
> P(at least one 3) == 1 - P(no 3s) == 1 - P(each die
> not 3)^3
>  == 1 - (5/6)^3 == 91/216 (about 0.42, nearly 3 in 7
> chance).


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