Re: [HOE] NEVER buy cyberware from a junker! [Shane]

[Matt Crawford <matt@severian.chi.il.us>]

> I don't see a 1.25% chance adding up to a 50/50 after a couple of months
> unless you have really REALLY upset the dice fieties, ruined your dice karma
> or what ever else you prefer to call your dice turning on you.

Now you've done it.  You've woken the mathematician.  Dp you know
another synonym for "reckoning" ... ?

Take your 1/80 = 1.25% chance per day as a given.  Now what does it
mean for your device to still be OK at the end of a week?  It means

     it didn't go bad on sunday (98.75% chance)
AND
     it didn't go bad on monday (98.75% chance, assuming it got
     through sunday OK)
AND
     it didn't go bad on tuesday (98.75% chance, assuming it got
     through sunday and monday OK)
AND
     ... (wed, thu, fri) ...
AND
     it didn't go bad on saturday (98.75% chance, assuming ...)


To reckon the chance of it surviving seven days, multiply all those
98.75 percents together, getting 91.57something%.  So there's about
an 8.5% chance of it giving up the ghost during a week.

For a month, multiply 30 copies of 98.75% to get a 68.5something%
chance of device-survival.

For two months, multiply 60 copies, or just multiply the previous
figure by itself once: 47.013897...% chance of survival.  Already
below 50%, as claimed by Theo.

	   Famine, War, Pestilence, Death, and now ...
			   Audit!

(And why is it that, just as Empire players can't spell Deity, DL/HOE
players can't spell Epitaph?)