Re: [DL] Dice Rollin'

["Michael Sprague" <mds@rochester.rr.com>]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Johnny Burlin" <Johnny.Burlin@home.se>
To: <deadlands@gamerz.net>
Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 10:54 AM
Subject: Re: [DL] Dice Rollin'


> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Sprague <mds@rochester.rr.com>
> To: <deadlands@gamerz.net>
> Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 2:20 PM
> Subject: [DL] Dice Rollin'
>
> <snip>
>
> > Target#   1d10   2d10   3d10   4d10   5d10
> > ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
> >  Bust 10.000%  1.000%  1.000%  0.100%  0.100%
>
> <snip>
>
> I hate to break this to you, I really do, but the chance of Bustin'
> above is incorrect. It is correct for 1D10 and 2D10 but not
> for 3D10 and above.

No problem what-so-ever.  If my math was incorrect, I want to know ... one
of the reasons I posted it.  Obviously, I didn't then do a proof.  :-)  My
numbers might be off when going above the max for a die as well ... I based
it on the chance of getting an Ace, and may not have taken into account the
chance of getting more than one Ace.  If so, that would mean that the
percentage chances are all slightly higher ... but not by much.


> Think about it, who do you bust on 3D10? Well, whenever you
> roll 1-1-X, where X can be any number. Huw bust rolls
> can there be on a 3D10 roll? For starters X can be any of the
> three dice and X is any number in the range 2-9, 1-1-1 is
> a special case that is one of a kind, it shouldn't be counted
> in all three combinations. So, you bust on the following
> combinations:
> 1-1-1            1 combination
> (2-10)-1-1      9 combinations
> 1-(2-10)-1      9 combinations
> 1-1-(2-10)      9 combinations
> A grand total of 30 dice combinations results in busts.
> There are 10^3  dice combinations so the chance of bustin' is
> 30/1000 = 3%
> Note that this is higher than the bust chance on 2D10, counter
> intuitive but a well known fact.

I understand this, but I only see 28 combinations.  What am I missing?

> While we are on the subject, did anyone notice that the chance of getting
> 3 action cards (Qui vs. 10) is higher when your Quickness is 4D8 than
> when it is 4D10 (assuming you suffer from no penalties), talk about
> counter intuitive...

This is like one of the quirks I was pointing out when you switch die types.
It has to do with the fact that with a d8, there is no difference between a
target roll of 8 and 9.  This is one of the reasons I was doing the analysis
in the first place.  :-)

~ Mike